• At least 10 people were killed and 24 wounded—including three children—in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley on Fri⁠day, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, making these among the deadliest strikes since the Nov⁠ember 2024 ceasefire.
• A separate Israeli strike hit the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp on the outskirts of Sidon, killing two people; Israel said it targeted a Hamas command center, while Hamas called the claim a "flimsy pretext."
• Israel said the Bekaa strikes hit Hezbollah "command centers" it deemed a violation of the ceasefire understandings, while a senior Hezbollah official was confirmed killed; the group has claimed only one strike against Israel since the Nov⁠ember truce, per BBC.
• The escalation comes as the U.S. has threatened to strike Iran—a Hezbollah backer—if nuclear talks fail, raising fears in Lebanon that the country could be pulled into a broader regional war it has no interest in fighting.

Why it matters: The unusually high death toll signals that the ceasefire's fragile quiet may be unraveling, and with U.S.-Iran tensions running hot, Lebanon sits precisely where it least wants to be—in the middle.

• An unprecedented standoff erupted on Mon⁠day between U.S. and Lebanese army soldiers near the Hamat air base in the Batroun district, according to the municipal president of Hamat, Nicolas Ayoub, who said he was present at the scene.
• U.S. soldiers shot down what they believed to be a drone launched near the base; the object reportedly crashed several kilometers away, triggering the tense confrontation between the two forces.
• According to Ayoub and security sources cited by The Cradle, American soldiers briefly held local residents and Lebanese soldiers at gunpoint before the situation was defused—a jarring scene given that Washington is the Lebanese Army's primary donor and supporter.

The backstory: The U.S. has been a key financial and military backer of the Lebanese Armed Forces for years, providing equipment and training as part of efforts to strengthen state institutions. The Hamat base is a strategic Lebanese military installation in northern Lebanon, making the incident especially sensitive.

Zooming out: The incident exposes just how complicated Lebanon's security landscape has become post-ceasefire, with multiple foreign military presences operating in close—and sometimes combustible—proximity.

• New voter lists published by Lebanon's Interior Ministry on Feb⁠ruary 1 show the total electorate has grown to 4,141,103 registered voters, up from 3,967,507 in 2022—a notable jump as parliamentary elections approach.
• Muslim voters now number 2,758,330 compared to 2,594,667 in 2022—a 6.3% increase—while Christian voters grew only marginally from 1,363,098 to 1,373,310, a mere 0.38% rise.
• Researchers point to higher birth rates among Muslim communities, the legacy of the controversial 1994 naturalization decree that granted citizenship to roughly 170,000 people (only 30,000 of whom were Christian), and Christian emigration as the key drivers of the widening gap.
• Experts and party sources broadly agree the constitutional guarantee of a 50/50 Christian-Muslim split in parliament shields against immediate political fallout—but political parties, particularly Christian ones, are already studying the numbers closely ahead of the vote.

What to watch: With President Aoun firmly opposed to any parliamentary extension, these demographic figures will quietly shape electoral strategy and district-level dealmaking in the months before Lebanon heads to the polls.

• Lebanon and the IMF have entered a new technical phase of negotiations, moving beyond general positions into structural details, with the upcoming Washington Spring Meetings serving as the critical credibility test for Lebanon's reform commitments, according to An-Nahar.
• Two parallel tracks are underway: drafting a medium-term financial framework to regulate public finances over three years, and amending the banking reform law in response to IMF observations before it returns to Parliament for a final vote.
• Finance Minister adviser Samir Hammoud told An-Nahar that approving both the financial framework and the banking reform law together is a "necessary condition" to enter the Spring Meetings from a strong position, and that the Speaker of Parliament has signaled willingness to pass the banking law before the meetings.

What to watch: Whether Lebanon's parliament can move fast enough to pass the banking reform law before the Spring Meetings—a narrow window that could either reopen Lebanon's access to the international financial system or send it back into stagnation.

• The United States has assembled its largest military deployment in the Middle East in two decades, with the Pentagon positioning aircraft carriers, warships, jets, and air defense batteries across the region as President Trump considers a military campaign against Iran's nuclear program, according to the New York Times.
• Trump told reporters Fri⁠day he was considering a limited strike to pressure Tehran into a deal—"I guess I can say I a⁠m considering that"—while setting a 10-to-15-day deadline for Iran and threatening that "really bad things" would follow if no agreement was reached.
• Iran's UN mission warned that all U.S. bases, facilities, and assets in the region would be "legitimate targets" if Iran is attacked, while between 30,000 and 40,000 U.S. troops stationed at 13 military bases across the Middle East face heightened risk compared to last Jun⁠e's 12-day conflict.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Israeli P⁠M Netanyahu on Feb⁠ruary 28 to discuss Iran, while U.S. officials say all forces won't be fully in place until mid-Mar⁠ch, according to Reuters analysis published by Al-Monitor.

The bigger picture: With two rounds of talks stalled on uranium enrichment, missiles, and sanctions relief—and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi reportedly refusing to even open a U.S. envelope of proposals—the diplomatic off-ramp is narrowing fast, and a miscalculation by either side could trigger a conflict far longer and deadlier than last Jun⁠e's.

• The Committee to Protect Journalists published a report Thurs⁠day documenting testimony from 59 Palestinian journalists held in Israeli prisons between Oct⁠ober 2023 and Jan⁠uary 2026, finding that all but one reported torture, abuse, or other forms of violence during detention.
• Testimonies included beatings, sexual violence, prolonged restraint in painful positions, medical neglect, food deprivation, and exposure to loud noises; detainees lost an average of 23.5 kilograms during imprisonment, with improvised medical procedures performed by fellow inmates due to lack of care.
• As of Feb⁠ruary 19, 30 journalists remained behind bars; the CPJ recorded at least 94 journalists and one media worker detained since Oct⁠ober 2023, with most held under administrative detention—meaning no charges, no prosecution, and in most cases no access to lawyers.

Zooming out: The CPJ's finding that Israel ranks among the countries most frequently cited for journalist abuse since 1992—alongside Iran and Egypt—adds institutional weight to individual testimonies and intensifies international scrutiny of press freedom conditions tied to the Gaza conflict.