• The UN Security Council's Resolution 2790 mandates UNIFIL's withdrawal within one year of its mandate ending in Dec⁠ember 2026, prompting active discussions about what replaces it in southern Lebanon.
• Western sources say Washington and Jerusalem favor a US-led mechanism with limited, coordinated international participation—arguing UNIFIL's coordination role has already been effectively replaced by a US-led ceasefire mechanism in place since Nov⁠ember 2024.
• China's UN ambassador Fu Cong, whose country holds the Security Council presidency for May⁠, pushed back Fri⁠day, saying the Security Council should "revisit" the withdrawal decision and calling on Israel to stop its bombardment of Lebanon, where more than 2,500 people have been killed since Mar⁠ch 2.
• Proposed alternatives include a model inspired by the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai—US-led, UN-free—with a pilot program to train elite Lebanese units in disarmament, counter-terrorism, and border control.

What to watch: The UN secretariat is expected to present options in Jun⁠e for implementing Resolution 1701, and whether China can build Security Council consensus to pause or reverse the withdrawal timeline will define southern Lebanon's security architecture for years.

• An attempt to revive a tripartite presidential meeting—bringing together President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Speaker Nabih Berri—collapsed before it began, as Berri moved to open confrontation with Aoun rather than endorse a consensual negotiation strategy toward Israel talks.
• The breakdown is being read in Arab and Western diplomatic circles as evidence that Tehran and Hezbollah are actively working to block any internal Lebanese consensus that would accelerate direct negotiations with Israel and strip the armed group of its justification for remaining armed.
• Analysts note the irony: pro-resistance media had just been celebrating what they framed as Saudi Arabia's elevation of Berri's standing following a recent Saudi envoy visit to Beirut, portraying it as a brake on the Aoun-Salam momentum toward talks.

The backstory: Since the Nov⁠ember 2024 ceasefire, Lebanon's new government under President Aoun and P⁠M Salam has moved toward US-backed negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah and its allies, weakened militarily but still politically entrenched, have resisted any framework that would formalize disarmament or normalize relations with Israel.

Zooming out: The collapse of the tripartite initiative illustrates how Iran's political leverage in Lebanon—even through a weakened Berri—can still disrupt diplomatic momentum that most Lebanese parties and international backers are trying to build.

• Despite its economic crisis, Lebanon ranks within the top 20 globally for AI adoption, with 37% of Lebanese companies using AI technologies—compared to 55%–65% in the US and 25%–35% in Europe, according to senior AI advisor and Berkeley lecturer Cyrille Najjar.
• Over 150 AI startups are currently active in Lebanon, roughly 12% of the workforce is engaged in AI-related jobs, and the Ministry of State for Technology has issued up to 200,000 free training certificates in partnership with Microsoft and Google Cloud Platform.
• Najjar projects a 20%–35% increase in workforce productivity from AI adoption, with GDP potentially rising by 150% if the trend holds—though cybersecurity advisor Roland Abi Najm warns the technology is already eliminating roles in content creation, design, and programming faster than new ones appear.

The bigger picture: Lebanon's multilingual, tech-savvy youth and deep software engineering culture have made it an unlikely AI leader—a rare structural advantage that private investment and state institutions are now racing to translate into durable economic growth.

• Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US blockade while nuclear negotiations continued; Trump rejected the offer Wednes⁠day, vowing to keep the blockade in place until Iran agrees to American terms on the nuclear issue.
• US talks in Islamabad, led by JD Vance, found Iran unresponsive to demands on its nuclear program; the Trump administration is now reportedly weighing a "short and powerful" wave of targeted strikes, with military options already briefed to the president.
• The World Bank estimates the current oil supply shock may already be the largest ever, with refined products such as fertilizer and petrochemicals expected to fall into short supply as stockpiles drawn down before the strait closed begin to run out.
• Iran has resisted full uranium enrichment curbs for years and went to war twice rather than concede those points, leading analysts cited in The Atlantic to argue both sides currently believe they have won the war.

What to watch: Whether Trump moves on the reported strike options before his mid-May⁠ China visit—or holds off—will likely determine whether the strait reopens through negotiation or escalates into another military exchange with global economic consequences.

• Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund confirmed this⁠ week it is pulling out of LIV Golf, citing investments that are "no longer consistent with the current phase" of its strategy—the highest-profile casualty of a broader pullback driven by a $73 billion budget deficit last⁠ year.
• The retreat extends beyond golf: the 2029 Asian Winter Games were postponed indefinitely, the WTA Finals hosting deal was not renewed, the Saudi Snooker Masters was cancelled two years into a 10-year agreement, and plans to bid for the 2035 Rugby World Cup were reportedly abandoned.
• PIF sold Saudi Pro League club Al-Hilal and is now pivoting toward sports with existing domestic fan bases—combat sports, esports, Formula 1—while directing more capital toward infrastructure ahead of the 2034 FIFA World Cup, which carries enormous construction costs.

The bigger picture: The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted Saudi oil exports and increased defence spending pressures, accelerating a strategic rethink at PIF that was already underway before the Gulf's geopolitical landscape shifted so sharply.

• A three-judge panel of the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Fri⁠day that mifepristone—approved by the FDA in 2000—can no longer be distributed by mail and must be dispensed in person at clinics only, a decision that diverges sharply from longstanding judicial deference to FDA drug-safety determinations.
• The ruling was requested by Louisiana's attorney general and effectively extends the state's medical abortion ban by removing telemedicine access, which has become a primary route for abortion care since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
• The ACLU warned the ruling "will affect patients' access to abortion and miscarriage care in every state," with rural communities, low-income patients, people with disabilities, and survivors of domestic violence expected to bear the sharpest impact.

Zooming out: Fri⁠day's ruling sets up a near-certain appeal to a Supreme Court that unanimously preserved mifepristone access in 2024 on standing grounds—meaning the core legal questions about the pill's distribution were deliberately left unanswered and are now back in play.