The UN peacekeeping force that has stood between Lebanon and Israel since 1978 is running out of mandate—and possibly out of time. With its Dec⁠ember 31 expiry approaching and the US and Israel pushing for an exit, Lebanon is scrambling for alternatives that may never arrive.

• UNIFIL currently fields roughly 7,500 peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries along the 120-kilometre Blue Line; two Lebanese officials told AFP that Beirut's preference is to preserve some form of UN presence after Dec⁠ember 31, even a downsized one.
• Options under discussion include a slimmed-down UN mission or an expanded mandate for UNTSO, the regional peacekeeping body established in 1948, though a US veto could block any new Security Council proposal.
• If no UN arrangement is reached, Italy, France, and Spain—all with major UNIFIL contingents—have expressed willingness to remain under bilateral or EU frameworks, though diplomats warn that patchwork accords would be unwieldy.
• A worst-case gap would leave no impartial monitor on the ground: "There wouldn't be any international witness," a Western diplomatic source said, warning of dangerous competition over the narrative.

What to watch: The UN secretary-general's report to the Security Council, due by Jun⁠e 1, will signal whether a viable multilateral formula exists—or whether Lebanon faces a full peacekeeping vacuum at year's end.

Israeli forces have pushed beyond their declared "Yellow Line" buffer zone along the Litani River, advancing toward Nabatieh and expanding into the Western Beqaa—in what analysts describe as a deliberate strategy of incremental occupation mirroring what happened in Gaza.

• Occupation forces have reached the outskirts of Meifdoun, a town that geographically overlooks Nabatieh city, after earlier tightening control over Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and surrounding hills including Kfar Tebnit, Shoukin, and Harouf, according to Daraj.
• In Gaza, a similar incremental approach saw Israeli control expand from a declared 53% of territory to an estimated 63%, with a new "Orange Line" drawn and no Israeli withdrawal signaled—a pattern now being applied in the South.
• Israeli military experts publicly describe Hezbollah's booby-trapped drones as a "catastrophe," which analysts argue serves as media cover to justify deeper territorial advances while diverting attention from the scale of urban destruction.

Zooming out: The Israeli negotiating delegation in Washington is simultaneously pressing to end UNIFIL and demanding "freedom of movement" beyond Resolution 1701, which would effectively require redrawing Lebanon's geographical borders.

Lebanon's constitution turned 100 on May⁠ 23rd. A century in, the document drafted to anchor a new republic has become, in the words of one analysis, a "contract of coercive cohabitation"—renewed not by consensus but by spoils, crisis, and exhaustion.

• The Taif Agreement's transfer of presidential powers to a sectarian Council of Ministers eliminated individual accountability: "No one was responsible for failure because everyone was a partner in it," according to Al Modon's analysis.
• The constitution's preamble phrase—"no legitimacy for any authority that contradicts the charter of common living"—has functioned in practice as a veto instrument, enabling any major sect to freeze elections, block governments, or paralyze appointments.
• Proposed reforms include a semi-presidential system with strong constitutional minority guarantees, a Senate-style body for fateful issues, administrative decentralization, a civil personal status law, and full state monopoly on weapons.

The bigger picture: The centenary lands as Lebanese institutions remain frozen across multiple fronts, making the constitutional debate less academic exercise and more an urgent question of whether the current framework can survive another decade, let alone another century.

US-Iran nuclear negotiations are circling one central problem: a large portion of Iran's highly enriched uranium survived the Jun⁠e bombing campaign, and nobody fully knows where it is or how much remains.

• When Israel and the US struck Iran's nuclear sites in Jun⁠e, Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity — enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to IAEA estimates cited by Reuters.
• The IAEA believes "a bit more than 200 kg" of the 60% stock sits in a tunnel complex in Isfahan that appears largely unharmed by the Jun⁠e strikes; Iran has not allowed inspectors back to verify.
• Trump posted Fri⁠day that the buried enriched uranium must be "unearthed" and destroyed in coordination with Iran and the IAEA — while Iranian sources say Tehran might agree to ship half abroad and dilute the rest inside Iran.
• Iran's supreme leader has reportedly directed that the 60% material not be sent abroad, complicating any deal framework before ceasefire extension talks conclude.

What to watch: Whether Iran allows IAEA inspectors back into its surviving enrichment sites will likely determine whether a broader nuclear agreement is achievable or whether talks stall on verification alone.

A tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension deal sent oil prices lower on Fri⁠day — but markets are tempering their optimism, because the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and any supply recovery is expected to be slow.

• Brent crude slipped 0.8% to $91.97 a barrel on Fri⁠day morning, still well above the roughly $70 per barrel it traded at in late Feb⁠ruary before the war began.
• US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative ceasefire extension deal Thurs⁠day; Iran had not yet publicly confirmed it, and the agreement was still awaiting President Trump's final sign-off as of Fri⁠day morning.
• The tentative accord includes a clause that Iran would not impose tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while the US would gradually lift its sea blockade on Iranian ports.
• Asian markets responded positively: Tokyo's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.8% and South Korea's Kospi gained 2.3%, both trading near record highs.

Zooming out: Even if a ceasefire holds, analysts warn that shipowners may hesitate to re-enter the Persian Gulf and that oil and gas production recovery will be gradual rather than immediate, keeping energy markets volatile.

For the first time in the UN's annual conflict-related sexual violence report, Israel has been added to its blacklist — alongside Russia — after the secretary general's office verified 31 cases of sexual violence by Israeli forces against Palestinians.

• The UN verified 31 cases carried out against 14 men, 7 women, 9 boys, and 1 girl, including rape, gang rape, forced nudity, and violence to genitals, committed by Israeli military, police, and prison service personnel.
• 13 of the verified cases occurred in 2025, with the remaining 18 in the two prior years; the UN noted its investigations had been obstructed by the Israeli government.
• Israel's ambassador to the UN accused Secretary General Guterres of spreading antisemitic lies and announced Israel would refuse contact with his office for the duration of his tenure.

The bigger picture: Russia was simultaneously added to the blacklist for the first time, with 310 verified instances of conflict-related sexual violence in Ukraine — making this report's expansion of the list one of its most significant in scope.