At the Élysée Palace on Mon⁠day, Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman issued a rare joint statement on Lebanon, calling for full disarmament of all armed groups and a complete Israeli withdrawal. When Paris and Riyadh speak in unison, Beirut listens.

• The joint Franco-Saudi communiqué, relayed by Lebanon's National News Agency, called for intensified efforts toward a "final solution" in Lebanon, including full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 — the 2006 accord that demanded Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament after that summer's war.
• Both leaders reaffirmed support for the Lebanese Armed Forces and welcomed moves by President Joseph Aoun and P⁠M Nawaf Salam "to rebuild state institutions and extend state authority over the entire territory."
• Israel has killed more than 4,300 people in Lebanon since re-escalating its war on Mar⁠ch 2, with the eighth round of Lebanon-Israel negotiations scheduled for Rome in early Sep⁠tember.
• Hezbollah opposes the ongoing negotiations — and Israel has continued strikes on Lebanon despite the nominal ceasefire in place since late Jun⁠e.

Why it matters: A coordinated Franco-Saudi push — combining French diplomatic reach with Gulf financial leverage — gives Beirut's negotiating position a rare, high-wattage backing at a moment when the Rome talks are already under pressure.

Sobhiye readers know Israeli forces have been grinding toward Ali al-Taher for weeks. Now security sources say the campaign is widening: the targeting has shifted to include routes toward Bint Jbeil, multiple surrounding hills, and a string of unoccupied towns — suggesting a battle larger than one strategic height is being prepared.

• Israeli operations are focused on the al-Dabsha and al-Tahra heights — both occupied by Israel before its 2000 withdrawal — with the goal of isolating the entire Ali al-Taher area from its surroundings.
• In the central sector, Israeli troops carried out incursions into four unoccupied towns: Beit Yahoun, Baraashit, Haddatha, and Aita al-Jabal — all routes leading to Bint Jbeil — in an attempt to create a buffer zone roughly five kilometers wide.
• Israel also struck under-construction homes in the Dawhet Kfar Reman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa areas and continued demolitions in Kfar Tebnint, while hitting Ali al-Taher itself with artillery and phosphorous bombs.

What to watch: Security sources say any future military battle won't be limited to Ali al-Taher but will encompass the central sector — making the Rome negotiations in Sep⁠tember even more consequential for where the front lines end up.

At Beirut's Mohammad al-Amine Mosque on Mon⁠day, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdellatif Derian used the Prophet Mohammad's birth commemoration to make one of the clearest religious endorsements yet of Lebanon's diplomatic path — and a pointed acknowledgment that not everyone agrees.

• "The decision to accept a truce to end aggression and massive destruction is a courageous decision," Derian said, adding that "the decision to make war may not currently be suitable for a free and dignified life nor for a promising future."
• The mufti praised the "courage and wisdom" of Lebanese authorities working to end Israeli aggression and called for unity among the three presidencies, saying their "cooperation and coordination guarantees the unity of Lebanon."
• P⁠M Nawaf Salam, also present, expressed hope that coming days would bring "security and stability" and allow displaced Lebanese to return to their homes.

Zooming out: With Hezbollah publicly opposing the ongoing Lebanon-Israel negotiations, a senior Sunni religious figure framing peace as the braver choice adds notable moral weight to the Lebanese state's diplomatic stance ahead of Rome.

The Iranian regime has long targeted critics abroad, but a sweeping New Yorker investigation reveals just how industrialized the operation has become: foreign criminals, teenage recruits, and a network that has executed more than 200 documented plots in the past five years alone — nearly double the total from 1979 to 2021.

• Iranian dissident journalist Pouria Zeraati was stabbed three times in the leg outside his London home in Mar⁠ch 2024 by Romanian nationals hired through an anonymous handler; two men were convicted and sentenced to twelve and eight years in prison respectively.
• Iran's IRGC Unit 840 has been sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU for coordinating covert operations in Europe, using Russian mobsters, Hells Angels, and now Swedish teenagers recruited via Telegram and Snapchat.
• Since 2022, counterintelligence officials have identified more than 20 Iran-backed operations targeting UK residents alone.
• Iran International, the London-based Persian-language satellite channel at the center of many threats, employs about 700 people and received roughly $870 million in a debt-for-equity swap from anonymous shareholders.

The bigger picture: As Iran's military proxies have been degraded by the ongoing war, the regime appears to be accelerating cheap, deniable operations abroad — turning Europe's criminal underworld into an extension of its intelligence apparatus.

Six months into the US-Iran war, American public enthusiasm for the conflict is fading fast. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Mon⁠day finds support at its lowest point since the fighting began in Feb⁠ruary, with rising gas prices and fears of a prolonged conflict driving the shift.

• Just 31 percent of Americans surveyed support US military action against Iran, down from 37 percent in Mar⁠ch and 34 percent earlier this⁠ month.
• Republican support for the war dropped to 69 percent from 77 percent in Mar⁠ch — a significant erosion within Trump's own base.
• Trump's approval rating sits at 33 percent for the second consecutive poll, matching the lowest recorded across both his terms.
• Petrol prices are more than $1 per gallon higher than before the war, and 83 percent of respondents believe the conflict will last an extended period, up from 80 percent earlier this⁠ month.

What to watch: With Nov⁠ember's midterm elections approaching and independent voters favoring Democrats over Republicans 33 to 19 percent in congressional matchups, the war's economic toll is becoming as much a domestic political problem as a foreign policy one.

The proposed merger between Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery — which would create one of the largest media companies in history — is facing a California-led legal blockade, and the financial penalty for delay is now ticking at $7 million a day.

• California's attorney general is expected to require Paramount to sell select cable channels and keep its film studio distinct from Warner Bros. Discovery before approving the $110 billion deal, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Paramount faces a contractual daily penalty of $7 million if the deal isn't closed by Sep⁠tember 30, with cumulative "ticking fees" set to reach $1.7 billion by Jun⁠e 1, plus $190 million in incremental financing costs, if delayed until Jun⁠e 2027.
• Regulators in at least 68 countries have already cleared or declined to contest the transaction — leaving US state lawsuits as the sole remaining barrier.

Zooming out: The case is shaping up as a test of how aggressively US states can challenge mega-mergers that federal regulators have already cleared, at a moment when media consolidation is accelerating globally.