🌳 Threats on campus

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Iran Threatens American Universities in the Region—AUB and LAU Move Classes Online

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to target American universities across the Middle East, warning that if the US did not condemn strikes on two Iranian universities by Monday noon, regional campuses could face retaliation—advising people to stay at least 1 kilometer away from American institutions.
• Both the American University of Beirut and the Lebanese American University issued statements denying any specific or direct threat against their campuses, calling circulating reports "mere rumors."
• Despite those denials, both AUB and LAU announced full remote learning for Monday and Tuesday as a precautionary measure, with only essential staff permitted on campus and hospitals continuing operations uninterrupted.
• AUB President Fadlo Khouri invoked Mahatma Gandhi in his statement, calling on all parties to spare educational and medical institutions from their conflicts—a rare and pointed appeal from a university that has weathered over 160 years of Lebanese history.

The backstory: The threats came after US and Israeli strikes reportedly damaged two universities in Tehran, escalating a tit-for-tat dynamic that has been pulling Lebanon's civilian institutions into the crossfire of a broader regional conflict.

What to watch: Whether the Monday noon deadline passes without incident will determine if AUB and LAU can return to in-person learning by Wednesday—and whether other American-affiliated campuses in the Gulf face similar pressure.

Patriarch Rai's Palm Sunday Message: Enough

• Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai used his Palm Sunday homily to call for an immediate end to the war, mourning the 1,189 people killed and 3,427 wounded since the conflict began in early March, according to the Health Ministry's latest figures.
• Among the dead: 124 children, 86 women, 51 first responders, and three journalists—Ali Choeib, Fatima Ftouni, and Mohammad Ftouni—killed Saturday in a targeted Israeli drone strike on their vehicle in Jezzine.
• Rai specifically mourned a father and son killed on the road linking the Christian villages of Dibil and Rmeish, calling Saturday's toll—over 60 dead in a single day—a wound on the nation's conscience.
• Despite the fighting, Christian communities in south Lebanon and the Bekaa held Palm Sunday processions and masses, including in the border village of Rmeish and Mar Elian Church in Ras Baalbeck.

Why it matters: When Lebanon's most senior Christian cleric invokes the language of peace branches over weapons on one of Christianity's holiest Sundays, it signals a society pushing hard against the logic of continued escalation.

Lebanon's Life Expectancy Is Quietly Falling—and the Data Is Damning

• A new analysis finds Lebanon's life expectancy has declined measurably since the 2019 economic collapse: for women, it dropped from 80 years in 2019 to just 71 years in 2021, before partially recovering to 75 years by 2023.
• For men, life expectancy fell from 77 years in 2020 to 76 years in 2021, then rebounded to approximately 79 years in 2023—but the very fact of the dip in both genders signals a structural collapse, not a demographic blip.
• World Bank data shows Lebanon still ranks above the MENA regional average of 71 years and above the upper-middle-income country average of 76 years, but the country has surrendered years of hard-won health gains accumulated over decades.

The bigger picture: When a country that once called itself the hospital of the Middle East starts losing years off its citizens' lives—because people are skipping doses, delaying surgeries, and avoiding hospitals they can't afford—the crisis has moved from the balance sheet into the body count.

QUICK HITS

• Open for business, barely: Lebanon's Public Works Ministry pushed back hard against social media rumors of airport closure, confirming 12 flights operated by 8 a.m. Sunday—while acknowledging a broader regional decline in flights affecting airports across the Middle East, not just Beirut.
• Hezbollah won't blink: An Egyptian General Intelligence delegation met with Hezbollah in Beirut hoping to explore a path toward disengagement from the war, but the party sent a clear signal: it's listening, not negotiating—redirecting Egypt to Speaker Nabih Berri for any political talks.
• 51 dead, 0 consequences: The UN Humanitarian Coordinator and WHO jointly condemned a wave of attacks on health workers in Lebanon, reporting 75 attacks on healthcare since March 2, killing 51 medical personnel and injuring 126 others—including nine paramedics killed overnight in three separate strikes in the south.
• Guerrilla shift in the south: Military analysts say both Israel and Hezbollah have fundamentally changed how they fight: Israel probes with drones and precision strikes while Hezbollah has abandoned fixed defensive lines for small, mobile, semi-autonomous units—making this conflict look nothing like 2024's 66-day war.
• Palms over politics: Despite Israeli evacuation orders and constant airstrikes, Lebanese Christians packed churches from Beirut to Tyre for Palm Sunday, with standing-room-only crowds turning the ancient ritual into a quiet act of collective defiance.

INTERNATIONAL

Lebanon's War Is Costing $75 Million a Day—and That's the Optimistic Number

• Dr. Marwan Barakat, chief economist at Bank Audi, estimates Lebanon's current war is generating roughly $75 million in daily losses—split between direct destruction of buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture, and indirect losses from frozen investment, collapsed tourism, and canceled projects, according to El Shark.
• Bank Audi's research team modeled 3 scenarios: a one-month war yields GDP growth of 1–2% in 2026; a three-month war tips Lebanon into -3% contraction; a year-long conflict triggers a full -10% depression-level collapse.
• Under the worst-case scenario, Lebanon's central bank foreign currency reserves could fall below $7 billion—a drop of roughly $5 billion from the prior year—while Eurobond prices could slide below 20 cents on the dollar.
• Barakat noted Lebanon had posted strong economic performance in 2025 following the ceasefire, making the current escalation a particularly painful reversal for a country that had finally begun to stabilize.

What to watch: Whether the conflict ends within weeks or stretches into summer will determine if Lebanon's hard-won 2025 recovery becomes a historical footnote or a foundation to rebuild from.

Israeli Police Bar Catholic Leaders From Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunday—A First in Centuries

• Israeli police prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, and the Custos of the Holy Land from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre to celebrate a private Palm Sunday Mass—a restriction described by the Latin Patriarchate as unprecedented in centuries of Christian worship at the site.
• Israeli authorities cited safety concerns related to the ongoing Iran war, pointing to narrow Old City alleyways lacking emergency vehicle access and inadequate bomb shelters nearby; shrapnel from an intercepted Iranian missile had already struck a rooftop just steps from the church earlier in March.
• The incident drew swift international condemnation: US Ambassador Mike Huckabee called it an "unfortunate overreach," French President Macron demanded guarantees of free worship in Jerusalem, and Italy formally summoned Israel's ambassador to Rome.
• By Monday morning, Israeli police announced a "limited prayer framework" to enable some worship, and Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel was developing a plan to allow church leaders access during Holy Week ahead of Easter.

Zooming out: The episode has reignited longstanding debates about the status quo governing Jerusalem's holy sites, adding religious freedom concerns to the already complex diplomatic fallout from the regional war.

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan Cleared—But the Political Fight Over His Future Isn't Over

• A panel of 3 senior judges unanimously concluded that a UN investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan did not establish "misconduct or breach of duty" beyond a reasonable doubt—findings the court's governing bureau is now deciding whether to adopt.
• The bureau's 21-member Assembly of States Parties convened Monday for a third time to deliberate; it has until April 8 to issue a preliminary assessment, after which Khan has 30 days to respond before a final decision is made.
• Leading lawyers, the Paris Bar Association representing 37,000 attorneys, and the African Bar Association all urged the bureau to uphold the judges' findings, warning that political override of the panel would undermine the court's institutional credibility.

The bigger picture: The outcome will test whether the ICC can insulate its judicial processes from political pressure at a moment when the court is already facing US sanctions and fierce pushback over its pursuit of Israeli and Hamas officials for alleged war crimes.

GHER HEK

• Beats, mouneh, and community: Beirut's underground electronic collective High Hats Community released a breakcore and experimental music compilation to support community kitchens in Karantina, where cooks from Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Nigeria are collaborating on meals—proof that Lebanon's creative scene keeps finding ways to feed both the soul and the stomach.
• Beirut flat goes global: Architect Elie Riachi's makeover of a Clemenceau apartment—blending mashrabiya-inspired walnut screens, travertine fireplaces, and midcentury treasures sourced from Paris and London flea markets—landed a feature in Architectural Digest, putting Lebanese design craft in front of one of the world's most prestigious home interiors audiences.
• From pit to published: Woody Brown, a 28-year-old non-speaking autistic writer who became UCLA's first non-speaking autistic graduate and completed his master's at Columbia in 2024, just published his debut novel—a witty, multi-perspective story about an adult day care center that he wants neurotypical readers to pick up not out of pity, but because it's simply a great book.
• Self-taught and unstoppable: Gareth Baty, a 40-year-old self-taught private dining chef from Carlisle, won MasterChef: The Professionals with a three-course menu his judges called "faultless"—each dish a tribute to a family member, including his late father—proving that cooking from the heart still beats cooking from a playbook.

Thanks for reading—go make it a good one.